Climate change is a terrible global concern and one of the greatest future threats to societal development as a whole. The accelerating pace of climate change is becoming a major challenge for agricultural production and food security everywhere. The present study uses the midcentury climate derived from the ensemble of 29 general circulation models (GCMs) on a spatial grid to quantify the anticipated climate change impacts on rice, maize, black gram, and red gram productivity over Tamil Nadu state in India under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The future climate projections show an unequivocal increase of annual maximum temperature varying from 0.9 to 2.2°C for RCP 4.5 and 1.4 to 2.7°C in RCP 8.5 scenario by midcentury, centered around 2055 compared to baseline (1981–2020). The projected rise in minimum temperature ranges from 1.0 to 2.2°C with RCP 4.5 and 1.8 to 2.7°C under RCP 8.5 scenario. Among the monsoons, the southwest monsoon (SWM) is expected to be warmer than the northeast monsoon (NEM). Annual rainfall is predicted to increase up to 20% under RCP 4.5 scenario in two-third of the area over Tamil Nadu. Similarly, RCP 8.5 scenario indicates the possibility of an increase in rainfall in the midcentury with higher magnitude than RCP 4.5. Both SWM and NEM seasons are expected to receive higher rainfall during midcentury under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 than the baseline. In the midcentury, climate change is likely to pose a negative impact on the productivity of rice, maize, black gram, and red gram with both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in most places of Tamil Nadu. The magnitude of the decline in yield of all four crops would be more with RCP 8.5 over RCP 4.5 scenario in Tamil Nadu. Future climate projections made through multi-climate model ensemble could increase the plausibility of future climate change impact assessment on crop productivity. The adverse effects of climate change on cereal and legume crop productivity entail the potential adaptation options to ensure food security.

中文翻译：

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未来气候变化对印度泰米尔纳德邦谷物和豆类作物生产力的潜在影响：世纪中叶时间片方法

气候变化是一个可怕的全球问题，也是未来对整个社会发展的最大威胁之一。气候变化的步伐加快正在成为各地农业生产和粮食安全的重大挑战。本研究使用空间网格上 29 个大气环流模型 (GCM) 的集合得出的世纪中叶气候，以量化 RCP 下印度泰米尔纳德邦水稻、玉米、黑豆和红豆生产力的预期气候变化影响4.5 和 RCP 8.5 场景。未来的气候预测显示，与基线（1981-2020）相比，到本世纪中叶，RCP 4.5 的年度最高温度明显增加 0.9 至 2.2°C，RCP 8.5 情景中的年度最高温度增加 1.4 至 2.7°C，以 2055 年为中心。预计最低气温上升幅度为 1.0 至 2。RCP 4.5 为 2°C，RCP 8.5 情景下为 1.8 至 2.7°C。在季风中，西南季风 (SWM) 预计比东北季风 (NEM) 暖和。在 RCP 4.5 情景下，预计泰米尔纳德邦三分之二地区的年降雨量将增加 20%。同样，RCP 8.5 情景表明本世纪中叶降雨量增加的可能性高于 RCP 4.5。在 RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5 下，预计本世纪中叶 SWM 和 NEM 季节的降雨量将高于基线。在本世纪中叶，泰米尔纳德邦大部分地区的 RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5 情景下，气候变化可能对水稻、玉米、黑豆和红豆的生产力造成负面影响。与 RCP 4 相比，RCP 8.5 时所有四种作物的产量下降幅度更大。泰米尔纳德邦的 5 场景。通过多气候模型集合做出的未来气候预测可以增加未来气候变化对作物生产力影响评估的合理性。气候变化对谷物和豆类作物生产力的不利影响需要潜在的适应方案以确保粮食安全。