Abstract

This study investigates how different targets of state-sanctioned arrests shape the likelihood of collective action. We hypothesize that leader arrests are especially likely to result in backlash protests. Leader arrests symbolize the suppression of social collectives, they create collective grievances, and constitute focal points for mobilization. Building on a global sample of arrests of cultural identity group members, we qualitatively traced for each arrest whether it sparked a backlash protest. Drawing on coarsened exact matched models, we find that protests are significantly more likely following leader arrests. In contrast, mass arrests are not significantly linked to backlash protests. Additional tests show that organizational membership does not drive this findings, whereas the symbolic value of leaders is linked to protest outbreaks. Our findings cast doubt on the narrow focus on quasi-constant structural variables and make the case for the disaggregation of repression and the importance of triggering events.

摘要

本研究调查了国家批准逮捕的不同目标如何影响集体行动的可能性。我们假设逮捕领导人特别有可能导致强烈抗议。领导人被捕象征着对社会集体的压制，他们制造集体不满，构成动员的焦点。基于对文化认同群体成员逮捕的全球样本，我们定性地追踪了每次逮捕是否引发了强烈抗议。利用粗化的精确匹配模型，我们发现抗议活动在领导人被捕后更有可能发生。相比之下，大规模逮捕与强烈抗议没有显着联系。其他测试表明，组织成员身份不会推动这一发现，而领导者的象征价值与抗议爆发有关。