Based on the product-country level trade data from 2004 to 2017, as well as the High-Tech Products Catalog from the US Census Bureau, this paper examines empirically the current phenomenon of “national concentration” in high-tech exports. The results show that the phenomenon of “national concentration” not only exists but also tends to be self-reinforcing. Compared with other products, the exports of high-tech products tend to be concentrated in certain countries, and this concentration trends were further strengthened after the global financial crisis of 2008–2009. The national concentration of R&D activities may be one of the important causes of the national concentration of high-tech products. This pattern remains robust when we further use the value-added export data and different definitions of high-tech products. We argue that the phenomenon of “national concentration” of high-tech exports may herald the arrival of the “Second Great Divergence” – the divergence between innovative and manufacturing activities – in the global economy.

中文翻译：

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国家高新技术产品集聚：第二次大分流？

本文基于2004年至2017年的产品国别贸易数据，以及美国人口普查局的高新技术产品目录，实证检验了当前高技术出口“国家集中”的现象。结果表明，“国家集中”现象不仅存在，而且有自我强化的趋势。与其他产品相比，高新技术产品的出口往往向特定国家集中，这种集中趋势在2008-2009年全球金融危机后进一步加强。R&D活动的国家集中可能是高新技术产品国家集中的重要原因之一。当我们进一步使用增加值出口数据和高科技产品的不同定义时，这种模式仍然存在。