This paper applies an endogenous institutionalist framework to understand the evolution of the rules-based international trading system since the end of World War II. We argue that the initial success of the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs and re-enforcement that led to the formation of the WTO can be explained by three major factors: the hegemonic position of the US, the belief that international trade would foster prosperity and peace, and Cold War politics. However, declining US hegemony along with a shift in global comparative advantage in labor-intensive manufacturing led to a shift from multilateral towards preferential trade agreements since the 1990s. Today, the WTO faces several new challenges, including increasing geo-political competition between the US and China, increasing digitization of commerce, and disrupted supply chains following COVID-19. A functioning WTO that facilitates global economic re-integration remains crucial to ensure a strong recovery from the pandemic and continued long-term prosperity and stability of the global economy.

中文翻译：

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后疫情时代多边主义的未来

本文应用内生制度主义框架来理解二战结束以来基于规则的国际贸易体系的演变。我们认为，贸易和关税总协定的初步成功以及导致 WTO 成立的重新执行可以用三个主要因素来解释：美国的霸权地位、国际贸易将促进繁荣的信念和和平和冷战政治。然而，自 1990 年代以来，美国霸权的衰落以及全球劳动密集型制造业比较优势的转变导致从多边贸易协定转向优惠贸易协定。今天，世贸组织面临着几个新的挑战，包括中美之间日益激烈的地缘政治竞争、商业数字化程度的提高、并在 COVID-19 之后中断了供应链。一个能促进全球经济重新一体化的正常运作的世贸组织对于确保从大流行病中强劲复苏以及全球经济持续长期繁荣和稳定仍然至关重要。