This paper examines mass public opinion in three small states of the South Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, to understand why some individuals in these states prefer a pro-Western foreign policy orientation–pursuing membership in North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU), while others do not. We draw on social identity theory to hypothesize the potential affinity some individuals feel toward the West. Using public data from the South Caucasus region where Russia has strongly attempted to block Western penetration, the paper demonstrates that the commitment to democratic values is central to the understanding of mass opinion over foreign alliances in small states: individuals who demonstrate pro-democracy attitudes and support democratic values are more likely to approve of pro-Western foreign policy orientation. These findings suggest that the study of foreign policy preferences in small states is important for our understanding of great power politics and alliance competition.

中文翻译：

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在西方和俄罗斯之间：解释小国的个别外交政策偏好

本文考察了南高加索、亚美尼亚、阿塞拜疆和格鲁吉亚三个小州的大众舆论，以了解为什么这些州的一些人更喜欢亲西方的外交政策取向——加入北大西洋公约组织 (NATO) 和欧盟 (EU)，而其他国家则没有。我们利用社会认同理论来假设一些人对西方的潜在亲和力。该论文使用来自南高加索地区的公共数据，俄罗斯强烈试图阻止西方渗透，表明对民主价值观的承诺对于理解大众对小国外国联盟的看法至关重要：表现出亲民主态度和支持民主价值观的人更有可能赞成亲西方的外交政策取向。这些发现表明，研究小国的外交政策偏好对于我们理解大国政治和联盟竞争具有重要意义。