ABSTRACT

This study estimates the causal effect of overeducation on wages using cross-sectional survey data from three countries in the Middle East and North Africa region. The Labour Market Panel Survey data from Jordan in 2016, Tunisia in 2014, and Egypt in 2012 and 2018 are used. Overeducation occurs when an individual works in a job that requires someone with less education. Our analysis focuses on employees with high school or college education in paid-wage jobs. Overeducation in the data is self-reported. Between 10% and 50% of the samples in the various countries are overeducated, with overeducation being more pronounced among high school than college-educated people. The novel causal forest method as well as the nearest neighbour and propensity score matching methods are used to estimate the over-education wage penalty. The overeducation job mismatch wage penalty is significant in both total wage and basic wage. The size of the penalty, however, varies considerably between the three countries and is negatively associated with the prevalence of overeducation in the job market in each country. The penalty in total wage ranges from 17% in Egypt in 2012 to approximately 50% in Tunisia. High school graduates have smaller penalties. We recommend policies such as conducting more active labour market programmes to reduce the stock of mismatched workforce, enhancing job search services to improve the quality of matching in new vacancies, and following strategies that motivate entrepreneurship.

摘要

本研究利用中东和北非地区三个国家的横断面调查数据估计了过度教育对工资的因果影响。使用约旦2016年、突尼斯2014年、埃及2012年和2018年的劳动力市场小组调查数据。当一个人从事需要受教育程度较低的人的工作时，就会发生过度教育。我们的分析重点是受过高中或大学教育且从事带薪工作的员工。数据中的过度教育是自我报告的。各国有 10% 到 50% 的样本受过过度教育，其中高中教育程度比受过大学教育的人更为明显。采用新颖的因果森林方法以及最近邻和倾向得分匹配方法来估计过度教育工资惩罚。过度教育工作错配工资惩罚无论是在总工资还是基本工资上都显着。然而，这三个国家的处罚力度差异很大，并且与每个国家就业市场过度教育的普遍程度呈负相关。工资总额的罚款范围从 2012 年埃及的 17% 到突尼斯的约 50%。高中毕业生受到的处罚较小。我们建议采取一些政策，例如开展更积极的劳动力市场计划，以减少不匹配的劳动力存量，加强求职服务以提高新职位空缺的匹配质量，以及采取激励创业的战略。这三个国家之间的教育程度差异很大，并且与每个国家就业市场中普遍存在的过度教育负相关。工资总额的罚款范围从 2012 年埃及的 17% 到突尼斯的约 50%。高中毕业生受到的处罚较小。我们建议采取一些政策，例如开展更积极的劳动力市场计划，以减少不匹配的劳动力存量，加强求职服务以提高新职位空缺的匹配质量，以及采取激励创业的战略。这三个国家之间的教育程度差异很大，并且与每个国家就业市场中普遍存在的过度教育负相关。工资总额的罚款范围从 2012 年埃及的 17% 到突尼斯的约 50%。高中毕业生受到的处罚较小。我们建议采取一些政策，例如开展更积极的劳动力市场计划，以减少不匹配的劳动力存量，加强求职服务以提高新职位空缺的匹配质量，以及采取激励创业的战略。