We build a simple overlapping generation model to investigate the effect of life expectancy on the real exchange rate where fertility is chosen endogenously. The model reveals that, although the overall effect of life expectancy on the real exchange rate is not certain, longer life expectancy tends to cause the real exchange rate to depreciate by reducing fertility. Fertility thus serves as a mediator in the effect of life expectancy on the real exchange rate. Evidence from 148 economies (1980–2018) shows a statistically significant and robust negative relationship between life expectancy and the real exchange rate. It is estimated that a 1 year increase in life expectancy is associated with a 1.5 percent depreciation in the real exchange rate. The evidence also confirms the mediated effect of fertility. The mediated effect that fertility exerts accounts for 30 percent to 50 percent of the total effect, depending on the real exchange rate index used.

中文翻译：

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长寿、生育率和实际汇率

我们建立了一个简单的重叠世代模型来研究预期寿命对内生选择生育率的实际汇率的影响。模型显示，虽然预期寿命对实际汇率的总体影响尚不确定，但预期寿命延长往往会通过降低生育率导致实际汇率贬值。因此，生育率在预期寿命对实际汇率的影响中起着中介作用。来自 148 个经济体（1980 年至 2018 年）的证据表明，预期寿命与实际汇率之间存在统计显着且稳健的负相关关系。据估计，预期寿命每增加 1 年，实际汇率就会贬值 1.5%。证据还证实了生育率的中介效应。