Abstract:

Previous studies have documented that a child's gender affects future fertility and family structure across several parts of the world. This paper use a comprehensive sets of data sources to examine its heterogeneity across countries and cohorts. Using individual-level data of 516 sample-years from 98 countries that span more than 300 years, I find that, on average, families increase their number of children if their first-born child is a girl. However, this average effect contains substantial heterogeneity. A cohort analysis using data of more developed countries suggests that these effects are concentrated in periods of fertility declines, specifically late 19th century. The effects are also primarily confined to Asia, specifically southeast Asia and Middle-East. Moreover, the fertility effects are significantly stronger among low educated mothers and those residing in countries with lower gender equal norms. Some policy implications are discussed.

摘要：

先前的研究已经证明，孩子的性别会影响世界多个地区未来的生育率和家庭结构。本文使用一组全面的数据源来检查其在国家和队列之间的异质性。使用来自 98 个国家 300 多年的 516 个样本年的个人数据，我发现，平均而言，如果第一个孩子是女孩，家庭会增加孩子的数量。然而，这种平均效应包含很大的异质性。使用较发达国家的数据进行的队列分析表明，这些影响集中在生育率下降的时期，特别是 19 世纪后期。影响也主要局限于亚洲，特别是东南亚和中东。而且，受教育程度低的母亲和居住在性别平等规范较低国家的母亲的生育率影响要大得多。讨论了一些政策影响。