Quantitative risk data are essential for efficient and consistent assessment of risk, and allow for the effective use of cost–benefit analysis to assess mitigating measures. Quantitative assessment of the risk posed by unexploded bombs (UXBs) on construction sites within the UK involves the identification of a set of contributory risk factors and modelling the interaction between them. This interaction of risk factors has been modelled using Monte Carlo simulation built into a new risk assessment tool (JG-MCS). Some of the output results from the tool are presented, including the limited validation that is possible against published work. The tool is used to assess the sensitivity of risk to some of the problem variables, and several of the underlying assumptions are investigated. The model has also been extended to explore the influence of investigative mitigation measures. Fundamental questions are raised regarding the risks being assessed, how they are presented and the efficacy of some mitigation measures. For the scenario used, it was found that the overall risk of UXB encounter was low before mitigation and only slightly lower after mitigation. Also, the cost of implementing measures to reduce the risk posed by UXBs might be considered to be below the bracket of what is described by the UK Health and Safety Executive as ‘reasonably practicable’.

中文翻译：

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在英国建筑工地遇到未爆炸炸弹的概率有多大？

定量风险数据对于高效、一致的风险评估至关重要，并且可以有效利用成本效益分析来评估缓解措施。对英国境内建筑工地未爆炸炸弹 (UXB) 造成的风险进行定量评估涉及识别一组促成风险因素并对它们之间的相互作用进行建模。这种风险因素的相互作用已使用内置于新风险评估工具 (JG-MCS) 中的蒙特卡罗模拟进行了建模。给出了该工具的一些输出结果，包括针对已发表的工作可能进行的有限验证。该工具用于评估风险对某些问题变量的敏感性，并研究了一些基本假设。该模型还扩展到探索调查性缓解措施的影响。提出了有关正在评估的风险、风险的呈现方式以及一些缓解措施的有效性的基本问题。对于所使用的场景，发现缓解前遭遇 UXB 的总体风险较低，缓解后仅略有降低。此外，实施降低未爆弹药造成的风险的措施的成本可能被认为低于英国健康与安全执行局所描述的“合理可行”的范围。研究发现，在缓解之前遇到未爆炸爆炸弹的总体风险较低，在缓解之后仅略有降低。此外，实施降低未爆弹药造成的风险的措施的成本可能被认为低于英国健康与安全执行局所描述的“合理可行”的范围。研究发现，在缓解之前遇到未爆炸爆炸弹的总体风险较低，在缓解之后仅略有降低。此外，实施降低未爆弹药造成的风险的措施的成本可能被认为低于英国健康与安全执行局所描述的“合理可行”的范围。