ABSTRACT

Electoral authoritarian political systems have a hybrid nature, possessing very significant authoritarian features alongside elections that can produce openings for political change. The risks that elections pose to regimes are diminished if they can build winning coalitions involving voters beyond their core of loyal support. This paper considers how the construction of voter coalitions might be conceptualized in the Russian electoral authoritarian context, with reference to the case of the 2020 vote on constitutional reform, which was conducted with the primary aim of extending President Vladimir Putin’s term in office. Using data from a national survey of Russians conducted immediately after the vote, our analysis indicates that the regime’s success, even taking into account allegations of widespread fraud, was the result of its offer of additional constitutional amendments that were able to target voters beyond Putin’s core support.

摘要

选举威权政治制度具有混合性质，具有非常显着的威权特征，同时选举也可以为政治变革创造机会。如果政权能够在其忠诚支持的核心之外建立包括选民在内的获胜联盟，那么选举给政权带来的风险就会减少。本文参考 2020 年宪法改革投票的案例，考虑如何在俄罗斯选举独裁背景下构建选民联盟，该投票的主要目的是延长总统弗拉基米尔·普京的任期。使用投票后立即对俄罗斯人进行的全国调查的数据，我们的分析表明，即使考虑到广泛欺诈的指控，该政权的成功，