Global warming increases global average precipitation and evaporation, causing extreme climate and hydrological events to occur frequently. Future changes in temperature, precipitation, and runoff from 2021 to 2050 in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River were analyzed using a distributed hydrological model, the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), under a future climate scenario. Simultaneously, future variation characteristics of extreme climate hydrological elements in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River were analyzed using extreme climate and runoff indicators. The research shows that the frequency and intensity of the extreme temperature warming index will increase, while those of the extreme temperature cooling index will increase and then weaken in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River under a future climate scenario. The duration of precipitation, the intensity of continuous heavy precipitation, and the frequency of heavy precipitation will increase, whereas the intensity of short-term heavy precipitation and the frequency of heavy precipitation will decrease. However, spatial distribution of flood in the upper reaches is different, and thus flood risk in the upstream source area will still tend to increase. Particular attention should be given to the increase in autumn flood risk in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River.

中文翻译：

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未来气候变化对岷江上游极端气象水文要素的影响研究

全球变暖增加了全球平均降水量和蒸发量，导致极端气候和水文事件频繁发生。在未来气候情景下，使用分布式水文模型 SWAT（土壤和水评估工具）分析了闽江上游 2021 年至 2050 年的未来温度、降水和径流变化。同时，利用极端气候和径流指标，分析了岷江上游极端气候水文要素的未来变化特征。研究表明，未来气候情景下，闽江上游极端气温增暖指数的频率和强度将增加，而极端气温降温指数将先增加后减弱。降水持续时间、持续强降水强度、强降水频率增加，短时强降水强度、强降水频率降低。但上游洪水空间分布存在差异，上游源区洪水风险仍将呈上升趋势。应特别关注闽江上游秋季洪水风险增加。上游源区洪水风险仍将呈上升趋势。应特别关注闽江上游秋季洪水风险增加。上游源区洪水风险仍将呈上升趋势。应特别关注闽江上游秋季洪水风险增加。