This article investigates the existence of a link between financial cycles and fiscal cycles, and discusses possible policy implications for developing and emerging economies (DEEs). It empirically analyses the impact of financial cycle shocks on the short-term dynamics of Brazil’s fiscal policy by estimating a vector autoregressive (VAR) model for the period 1997–2018. The results indicate that financial cycles have pro-cyclical effects on the fiscal policy. This suggests that a fiscal policy should consider not only the cyclical behaviour of the output, but also its role in minimising financial factors. By explicitly linking Brazil’s fiscal performance with Brazil’s higher vulnerability to the financial cycle, this article adds to the literature that strives to understand the policy implications of the financialisation process in DEEs. It also contributes to the more general empirical literature on DEEs’ fiscal dynamics.

中文翻译：

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发展中和新兴经济体的金融周期和财政政策：对巴西案例的评估（1997-2018）

本文调查了金融周期和财政周期之间是否存在联系，并讨论了对发展中和新兴经济体 (DEE) 可能产生的政策影响。它通过估计 1997-2018 年期间的向量自回归 (VAR) 模型，实证分析了金融周期冲击对巴西财政政策短期动态的影响。结果表明，金融周期对财政政策具有顺周期效应。这表明财政政策不仅应考虑产出的周期性行为，还应考虑其在最小化金融因素方面的作用。通过将巴西的财政绩效与巴西对金融周期的较高脆弱性明确联系起来，本文为努力理解发展经济体金融化过程的政策影响的文献增添了新的内容。