Abstract

Road transport has been one of the largest contributors to global carbon emissions. In the Philippines, one such measure is the introduction of a relatively new public transport mode called the “Premium Point-to-Point (P2P) Bus Service”, which features shorter travel time and lower emission intensity than conventional buses. In light of the significant deficiency in transport emission studies for Philippine cities, this paper presents a scenario-based method for quantifying the potential emission reduction benefits of the P2P bus in Metropolitan Manila. Based on a pro rata mode shift assumption, it is estimated that a 1% mode shift of passengers from existing motor modes to P2P buses would lead to 0.64% reduction of total emissions over selected travel routes in Metro Manila. The analytical method addresses the acute emission data scarcity in the Philippines, and provides early evidence on the aggregate environmental benefits of P2P buses. Extensive sensitivity tests are conducted to verify the simulation results and identify key determinants of emission reduction. The tests confirm the robustness of research findings and further uncover the great potential of increasing vehicle occupancy levels to mitigate vehicle emissions in Metro Manila. Policy implications for enhancing the environmental benefits of P2P buses are provided.

摘要

公路运输一直是全球碳排放的最大贡献者之一。在菲律宾，其中一项措施是引入一种相对较新的公共交通模式，称为“优质点对点 (P2P) 巴士服务”，与传统巴士相比，其行驶时间更短，排放强度更低。鉴于菲律宾城市交通排放研究的显着不足，本文提出了一种基于情景的方法来量化马尼拉大都会 P2P 公交的潜在减排效益。根据按比例的模式转换假设，估计乘客从现有机动车模式转换为 P2P 公交车 1% 将导致马尼拉大都会选定旅行路线的总排放量减少 0.64%。该分析方法解决了菲律宾严重的排放数据稀缺问题，并为 P2P 公交车的总体环境效益提供了早期证据。进行了广泛的敏感性测试以验证模拟结果并确定减排的关键决定因素。这些测试证实了研究结果的稳健性，并进一步揭示了提高车辆占用率以减少马尼拉大都会车辆排放的巨大潜力。提供了提高 P2P 总线环境效益的政策含义。这些测试证实了研究结果的稳健性，并进一步揭示了提高车辆占用率以减少马尼拉大都会车辆排放的巨大潜力。提供了提高 P2P 总线环境效益的政策含义。这些测试证实了研究结果的稳健性，并进一步揭示了提高车辆占用率以减少马尼拉大都会车辆排放的巨大潜力。提供了提高 P2P 总线环境效益的政策含义。