As democracies worldwide have reverted to competitive authoritarian regimes or full dictatorships, some autocrats have used clientelist policies to strengthen their positions of power. We contend that autocrats can weaponise conditional cash transfers (CCTs) to shore up electoral support under democratic backsliding. In this vein, we analyse the impact of Honduras's Bono 10,000, a discretionary CCT, on the electoral support for the incumbent National Party and opposition blocs between 2013 and 2017, an era marked by the erosion of democracy. Using two survey waves from the AmericasBarometer by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP), we show how the CCT boosted the electoral support for the National Party as democracy unravelled. Our findings contribute to the growing literature on how autocrats rely on carrots – not just sticks – to consolidate power.

中文翻译：

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民主倒退下的有条件现金转移和现任者投票：洪都拉斯波诺 10,000 案例

随着世界各地的民主国家恢复竞争性威权政权或完全独裁，一些独裁者利用庇护主义政策来加强他们的权力地位。我们认为，独裁者可以将有条件现金转移支付（CCT）武器化，以在民主倒退的情况下增强选举支持。本着这一精神，我们分析了洪都拉斯的Bono 10,000（一项自由裁量权CCT）对2013年至2017年间现任国家党和反对派集团的选举支持的影响，这是一个以民主受到侵蚀为标志的时代。通过拉丁美洲民意项目 (LAPOP) 的美洲晴雨表的两次调查，我们展示了 CCT 如何在民主瓦解时提高对国家党的选举支持。