In early 2019, the Notre Dame de Paris cathedral was nearly destroyed by a fire. Unlike major disasters such as the Challenger and Columbia space shuttle explosions for instance, the fire at Notre Dame de Paris has never been thoroughly analyzed. Thus, many people still believe that it was entirely due to errors made by frontline workers. This study suggests that it actually resulted from the combination of various types of errors. It also argues that it was a predictable surprise, which is a disastrous event that could have been anticipated. Finally, it introduces a four-step playbook that can help leaders and organizations avoid predictable surprises.

中文翻译：

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避免可预见的意外：巴黎圣母院火灾的教训

2019年初，巴黎圣母院险些被一场大火烧毁。与挑战者号和哥伦比亚号航天飞机爆炸等重大灾难不同，巴黎圣母院的火灾从未得到彻底分析。因此，很多人仍然认为，这完全是前线工作人员的失误。这项研究表明，它实际上是由各种类型的错误组合造成的。它还争辩说，这是一个可预见的惊喜，这是一个本来可以预料到的灾难性事件。最后，它介绍了一个四步行动手册，可以帮助领导者和组织避免可预见的意外。