ABSTRACT

We examine the relationship between secondary school attainment and early-career graduate salaries in the UK. Based on literature on grade inflation, we hypothesise that there is uncertainty regarding the quality of the signal communicated by degree classifications, and that secondary school grades can be used as a tool to determine the veracity of classifications. We find that differences in secondary school attainment, expressed in UCAS points, are consistently a significant predictor of salary differences among graduates attaining Upper-Second-class degrees, and some First-class graduates. We estimate predicted probabilities, to predict the likelihood of a graduate appearing in a given salary band based on the combination of their secondary school attainment, degree classification and the university attended. The most common category of graduate in our sample (250 to 325 UCAS points, studied at a Post-1992 institution and attained an Upper Second class) has a 55% chance of attaining a salary less than £20,000 in the 12 months after graduation.

摘要

我们研究了英国中学学历与早期职业毕业生工资之间的关系。根据关于成绩膨胀的文献，我们假设学位分类传达的信号质量存在不确定性，并且中学成绩可以用作确定分类准确性的工具。我们发现，以 UCAS 分数表示的中学成绩差异始终是获得二等学位毕业生和一些一等毕业生薪资差异的重要预测指标。我们估计预测概率，以根据毕业生的中学学历、学位分类和就读大学的组合来预测他们出现在给定薪资范围内的可能性。