Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between labour market dualization, insecurity and low fertility, through a case study of South Korea, an extreme case of ultra-low fertility where the total fertility rate fell to 0.84 in 2020. It is argued that the long-term nature of the insecurity associated with dualization, as well as its impact on people’s perceptions of present and future insecurity, mark dualization out as a particular phenomenon whose impact on fertility current demographic approaches struggle to fully understand. Rather than restricting the focus to the education-employment transition, we show how permanent insecurity in highly dualized labour markets depresses fertility.

摘要

本文以2020年总和生育率降至0.84的超低生育率极端案例韩国为例，探讨劳动力市场二元化、不安全感与低生育率之间的关系。认为长期与二元化相关的不安全感的性质，以及它对人们对当前和未来不安全感的看法的影响，将二元化标记为一种特殊现象，其对生育率的影响目前的人口统计学方法难以充分理解。我们没有将重点局限于教育-就业转变，而是展示了高度二元化劳动力市场中的永久不安全感如何抑制生育率。