The Covid 19 pandemic has caused both a decrease in tax revenues and an increase in public spending, forcing governments to increase fiscal deficits to unprecedented levels. Given these circumstances, it is foreseeable that fiscal rules will play a predominant role in the design of many countries’ recovery policies. We develop a general equilibrium, overlapping generations model for a small, open economy in order to study the impact of several fiscal rules upon welfare, public expenditures and growth. We calibrate the model to the Peruvian economy. In this economy, fiscal rules have been widely used and, unlike in other Latin American countries, they have been relatively successful. We find that fiscal rules will generate better results in terms of output if, in addition to maintaining control over the fiscal result, they also preserve public investment. We also find that the performance of economies that implement structural rules tends to be better than the performance of economies that implement rules based on realized budget balance.

Covid 19 大流行导致税收减少和公共支出增加，迫使各国政府将财政赤字增加到前所未有的水平。鉴于这种情况，可以预见的是，财政规则将在许多国家的复苏政策设计中发挥主导作用。我们为小型开放经济体开发了一般均衡、代际重叠模型，以研究多项财政规则对福利、公共支出和增长的影响。我们根据秘鲁经济来校准模型。在这个经济体中，财政规则得到了广泛应用，并且与其他拉丁美洲国家不同，它们相对成功。我们发现，财政规则将在产出方面产生更好的结果，如果除了保持对财政结果的控制之外，它们还保留公共投资。我们还发现，实施结构性规则的经济体的表现往往优于实施基于已实现预算平衡的规则的经济体的表现。