Due to its size and importance, the Mexican automobile industry was an important topic in negotiations for the usmca agreement. A particularly contentious issue was the allegation that foreign direct investment (fdi) in Mexican parts plants has been facilitated by autocratic unions affiliated with the Confederation of Mexican Workers (ctm). Although this issue has been widely noted, there has been little systematic research on the topic. In this paper, we seek to fill this gap in the literature. Using panel data, we examine the determinants of fdi in the automotive parts sector in Mexico’s 31 states and Mexico City (formerly df) from 2004 to 2018. The study makes four contributions to the literature. First, we demonstrate empirically that fdi in the sector concentrated in Mexican states with a higher lagged unionization rate. Second, controlling for the type of union organization, the study shows that fdi was positively associated with states where the ctm was already well-established in the automobile industry. Alternatively, fdi was negatively associated with states where independent and democratic unions had previously organized. Third, we clarify the conditions under which firms prefer pre-emptive unionization with the ctm to the alternative of union avoidance. Finally, the study points to the importance of education and transportation infrastructure in fdi decisions.

由于其规模和重要性，墨西哥汽车工业是usmca协议谈判的重要议题。一个特别有争议的问题是，墨西哥零件厂的外国直接投资 ( fdi ) 受到墨西哥工人联合会 ( ctm ) 附属的专制工会的指控。尽管这个问题已被广泛关注，但很少有关于该主题的系统研究。在本文中，我们试图填补文献中的这一空白。使用面板数据，我们检查了墨西哥 31 个州和墨西哥城（以前称为df）汽车零部件行业的外国直接投资的决定因素) 从 2004 年到 2018 年。该研究对文献做出了四项贡献。首先，我们根据经验证明该部门的外国直接投资集中在墨西哥各州，这些州的滞后工会化率更高。其次，在控制工会组织类型的情况下，该研究表明，外国直接投资与ctm已经在汽车行业中建立起来的州呈正相关。或者，外国直接投资与以前组织过独立和民主工会的州呈负相关。第三，我们阐明了企业更喜欢与ctm建立先发制人工会的条件到工会回避的替代方案。最后，该研究指出了教育和交通基础设施在外国直接投资决策中的重要性。