This paper describes one of the first attempts to gauge the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global trajectory of real GDP over the course of 2020 and 2021. It is also among the first efforts to distinguish between the role of domestic variables and global trade in transmitting the economic effects of COVID-19. We estimate panel data regressions of the quarterly growth in real GDP on pandemic variables for 90 countries over the period 2020 Q1 through 2021 Q4. We find that readings on the number of COVID-19 deaths had a very small effect in our aggregate sample. On the other hand, changes in the stringency of the lockdown measures taken by governments to restrict the spread of the virus were an important influence on GDP. The economic effects of the pandemic differed between rich and poor countries: COVID-19 deaths exerted a somewhat greater drag on GDP in advanced economies, although this difference was not statistically significant, whereas lockdown restrictions were more injurious to economic activity in emerging and developing economies. In addition to these domestic pandemic effects, global trade represented a significant channel through which the economic effects of the pandemic spilled across national borders. This finding underscores how globalization makes each country vulnerable not only to medical contagion from the COVID-19 pandemic, but to economic contagion as well.

本文介绍了衡量 COVID-19 大流行对 2020 年和 2021 年全球实际 GDP 轨迹影响的首次尝试之一。它也是区分国内变量和全球变量作用的首批尝试之一贸易传播 COVID-19 的经济影响。我们估计了 2020 年第一季度至 2021 年第四季度期间 90 个国家的实际 GDP 季度增长对流行病变量的面板数据回归。我们发现 COVID-19 死亡人数的读数对我们的总体样本影响很小。另一方面，政府为限制病毒传播而采取的封锁措施的严格程度的变化对GDP产生了重要影响。大流行病对富国和穷国的经济影响不同：COVID-19 死亡人数对发达经济体的 GDP 造成了更大的拖累，尽管这种差异在统计上并不显着，而封锁限制对新兴和发展中经济体的经济活动的损害更大。除了这些国内大流行的影响外，全球贸易是大流行的经济影响跨越国界的重要渠道。这一发现强调了全球化如何使每个国家不仅容易受到 COVID-19 大流行的医疗传染，而且也容易受到经济传染。全球贸易是大流行病的经济影响跨越国界的重要渠道。这一发现强调了全球化如何使每个国家不仅容易受到 COVID-19 大流行的医疗传染，而且也容易受到经济传染。全球贸易是大流行病的经济影响跨越国界的重要渠道。这一发现强调了全球化如何使每个国家不仅容易受到 COVID-19 大流行的医疗传染，而且也容易受到经济传染。