Abstract

The Delaware Bay coastal zone includes at least 1580 cultural heritage resource sites; 700 of them could be damaged or lost by the year 2100. Future projections of sea-level rise (SLR) and storm surges identified cultural resources at high risk for inundation by the years 2030, 2050, 2080, and 2100. The projections are aimed to be high-end estimates preparing for long-term planning and “worse-case” scenarios. Sites located along the riverbanks are facing the highest threats from SLR. Coastal sites will be more frequently impacted by storms as surge levels increase with SLR. Storm-surge simulations predicted a non-linear increase in surge levels, reaching greater heights along the New Jersey side of the Bay compared to the Delaware side. Coastal sites without a protective dune system, or a dune less than 2 m in elevation, should be considered at immediate risk from coastal flooding. Shoreline erosion, and more frequent storms combined with SLR will increase vulnerability of coastal sites in the future. All endangered sites cannot be protected, therefore the results of the study should be of particular interest to historic preservation planners, cultural resources managers, Indigenous community leaders, and scholars to prioritize resources, develop the most effective preservation strategies, and plans for reconnaissance, survey, or data recovery from threatened sites and landscapes.

摘要

特拉华湾沿岸地区包括至少 1580 个文化遗产资源点；到 2100 年，其中 700 处可能遭到破坏或丢失。未来对海平面上升 (SLR) 和风暴潮的预测表明，到 2030 年、2050 年、2080 年和 2100 年，文化资源面临被淹没的高风险。这些预测旨在为长期规划和“最坏情况”情景做准备的高端估计。位于河岸的站点面临着来自 SLR 的最大威胁。随着浪涌水平随着 SLR 的增加而增加，沿海站点将更频繁地受到风暴的影响。风暴潮模拟预测浪涌水平呈非线性增加，与特拉华州相比，新泽西州沿海湾达到更高的高度。没有保护性沙丘系统或海拔低于 2 m 的沙丘的沿海地点，应考虑面临沿海洪水的直接风险。海岸线侵蚀和更频繁的风暴加上 SLR 将增加未来沿海地区的脆弱性。不可能保护所有濒危遗址，因此历史保护规划者、文化资源管理者、土著社区领袖和学者应该对研究结果特别感兴趣，以优先考虑资源，制定最有效的保护策略，并制定侦察、调查计划，或从受威胁的地点和景观中恢复数据。