After the rapid expansion of the subway system over the past two decades, some cities are preparing to build more suburban railways. The emergence of suburban railways is bound to change the choice of suburban passenger transportation. This paper studies the factors that affect the choice of travel mode at the construction stage of suburban railways, aiming to design a more rational suburban railway network and urban public transport service system. Taking Shanghai as an example, this study first surveyed revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) among urban-suburban travelers. Then, we used discrete choice models (DCM) and machine learning algorithms to build a travel mode choice model based on data collection and analysis. Furthermore, the importance of each factor was analyzed, and the effects were predicted under several traffic demand management schemes. Finally, this study proposed some strategies for increasing the share of public transport. On the one hand, it is suggested that Shanghai should continue to develop suburban railways and maintain low pricing of public transport services. Considering the construction and operation costs, the government needs to provide certain subsidies to stabilize prices. On the other hand, as passengers are very sensitive to the “last mile” trips in their suburban railway travel, transport planners should strengthen the connection from and to the suburban railway stations by developing services such as shared bikes and shuttle buses. In addition, the results indicated that some traffic demand management measures can also contribute to a larger share of public transport.

经过过去二十年地铁系统的快速扩张，一些城市正在准备修建更多的市郊铁路。市郊铁路的出现必将改变市郊客运的选择。本文研究了市郊铁路建设阶段影响出行方式选择的因素，旨在设计更加合理的市郊铁路线网和城市公共交通服务体系。以上海为例，本研究首先调查了城市-郊区旅行者的显示偏好（RP）和陈述偏好（SP）。然后，我们利用离散选择模型（DCM）和机器学习算法，在数据收集和分析的基础上构建了出行方式选择模型。此外，分析了每个因素的重要性，并预测了几种交通需求管理方案下的影响。最后，本研究提出了一些增加公共交通份额的策略。一方面，建议上海继续发展市郊铁路，保持公共交通服务的低廉价格。考虑到建设和运营成本，政府需要提供一定的补贴来稳定价格。另一方面，由于乘客对城铁出行的“最后一公里”出行非常敏感，交通规划者应通过发展共享单车、班车等服务，加强往返城铁车站的联系。此外，结果表明，一些交通需求管理措施也有助于提高公共交通的份额。