Estimation of patient prognosis plays a central role in guiding decision making for the palliative management of metastatic disease, and a number of statistical models have been developed to provide survival estimates for patients in this context. In this review, we discuss several well-validated survival prediction models for patients receiving palliative radiotherapy to sites outside of the brain. Key considerations include the type of statistical model, model performance measures and validation procedures, studies’ source populations, time points used for prognostication, and details of model output. We then briefly discuss underutilization of these models, the role of decision support aids, and the need to incorporate patient preference in shared decision making for patients with metastatic disease who are candidates for palliative radiotherapy

患者预后的估计在指导转移性疾病姑息治疗的决策制定中起着核心作用，并且已经开发了许多统计模型来为这种情况下的患者提供生存估计。在这篇综述中，我们讨论了几种经过充分验证的生存预测模型，适用于接受脑外部位姑息性放疗的患者。主要考虑因素包括统计模型的类型、模型性能测量和验证程序、研究的来源人群、用于预测的时间点以及模型输出的详细信息。然后，我们简要讨论了这些模型的未充分利用、决策支持辅助工具的作用，以及将患者偏好纳入姑息性放疗候选转移性疾病患者共同决策的必要性