ABSTRACT: Selecting optimal locations for mussel farming is vital for the optimization of production yield and for the minimization of environmental impact. Although predation by sea ducks may induce large stock losses and hence severe economic loss for mussel farmers, predation potential is rarely included in site-selection tools. In this paper we present a GIS-based spatial model predicting the potential of eider predation on blue mussel farms in Danish coastal waters. The model incorporates national survey data on eiders, as well as knowledge of eider behavior and habitat preferences, and was calibrated with predated/non-predated observations of eiders from 9 experimental mussel farms or test lines in Danish coastal waters. Except for 1 case study area, our model successfully confirmed a higher predation potential at test sites where predation had been observed. Our resulting predation potential map revealed potentials ranging from very low in inner parts of narrow estuaries to very high in more open coastal areas. Integration of the predation map into an existing site-selection tool showed that areas optimal for mussel growth were also associated with the highest modelled predation potential. Nonetheless, it was possible to identify areas having a very low potential of predation and only a 10% lower mussel production potential. These results underpin the potential for reducing production loss and increasing income by including predation potential in site-selection tools. In addition, the eider predation model can be used to identify and subsequently protect key foraging areas to support eider conservation.

中文翻译：

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预测丹麦沿海地区绒鸭捕食贻贝的可能性——对贻贝养殖地点选择的影响

摘要：选择贻贝养殖的最佳位置对于优化产量和最大限度地减少环境影响至关重要。虽然海鸭的捕食可能导致大量种群损失，从而给贻贝养殖者带来严重的经济损失，但捕食潜力很少被纳入选址工具。在本文中，我们提出了一个基于 GIS 的空间模型来预测丹麦沿海水域蓝贻贝养殖场中绒鸭捕食的可能性。该模型结合了关于绒鸭的国家调查数据，以及关于绒鸭行为和栖息地偏好的知识，并根据丹麦沿海水域 9 个实验性贻贝养殖场或试验线对绒鸭的捕食/非捕食观察进行了校准。除了 1 个案例研究区，我们的模型成功地证实了在观察到捕食的测试地点具有更高的捕食潜力。我们得出的捕食潜力图揭示了从狭窄河口内部的非常低的潜力到更开阔的沿海地区的非常高的潜力。将捕食图整合到现有的选址工具中表明，最适合贻贝生长的区域也与最高的模拟捕食潜力相关。尽管如此，还是有可能确定捕食潜力非常低且贻贝生产潜力仅低 10% 的区域。这些结果支持通过将捕食潜力纳入选址工具来减少生产损失和增加收入的潜力。此外，