Abstract

The study aimed to analyze the probability of occurrence/severity situation of meteorological drought in Peshawar, Pakistan and its impacts on agriculture. Therefore, the past 30-years (1986–2016) meteorological data was collected from Peshawar Meteorological Department and analyzed through Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) drought software for mild, moderate, severe and extreme droughts on monthly, seasonally and annually basis. Results for the monthly and seasonal analysis found that severe and extreme droughts occurred mostly in May and June in summer, and March and April in spring seasons. The annually basis analysis found severe drought for the years 1989, 2000, 2001 and 2006, in which the most extreme drought year was 2001. Furthermore, the probability of occurrence/percentage of mild drought (12-month) in past 30 years was calculated 34%, moderate 9%, severe 8% and extreme drought 1.6%, These results also provide an insight of drought probability of occurrence and severity in next hundred years. The study concluded that most immediate consequence of drought can be seen in a fall in crop production. No work has been conducted before on measurement of meteorological drought of Peshawar through SPI. Therefore, it is a novel study and will contribute towards preparing for the drought which may affect the crops of Peshawar.

中文翻译：

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根据 SPI 指数进行降雨发生不足的气象干旱测量：以巴基斯坦白沙瓦为例

摘要

该研究旨在分析巴基斯坦白沙瓦气象干旱的发生概率/严重程度及其对农业的影响。因此，白沙瓦气象局收集了过去 30 年（1986-2016 年）的气象数据，并通过标准化降水指数（SPI）干旱软件对轻度、中度、重度和极端干旱进行了月度、季节和年度分析。月度和季节分析结果发现，严重和极端干旱主要发生在夏季的 5 月和 6 月，以及春季的 3 月和 4 月。年基分析发现，1989年、2000年、2001年和2006年均出现严重干旱，其中最严重的干旱年份是2001年。此外，过去 30 年轻度干旱（12 个月）发生概率/百分比计算为 34%、中度干旱 9%、重度干旱 8% 和极端干旱 1.6%，这些结果也提供了干旱发生概率和严重程度的见解下一个百年。该研究得出的结论是，干旱最直接的后果是作物产量下降。之前没有开展过通过 SPI 测量白沙瓦气象干旱的工作。因此，这是一项新颖的研究，将有助于为可能影响白沙瓦作物的干旱做准备。该研究得出的结论是，干旱最直接的后果是作物产量下降。之前没有开展过通过 SPI 测量白沙瓦气象干旱的工作。因此，这是一项新颖的研究，将有助于为可能影响白沙瓦作物的干旱做准备。该研究得出的结论是，干旱最直接的后果是作物产量下降。之前没有开展过通过 SPI 测量白沙瓦气象干旱的工作。因此，这是一项新颖的研究，将有助于为可能影响白沙瓦作物的干旱做准备。