This paper evaluates which structural characteristics matter for macroeconomic resilience, in particular regarding the capacity to absorb and recover from common shocks across euro area Member States over the period from 1998 to 2018. Applying a panel regression analysis and Bayesian model averaging, the paper aims to identify a set of factors as diverse and specific as possible in order to guide future policy actions. These country-specific factors relate to the macroeconomic conditions, the functioning of product, labour and financial markets, institutional quality and to deeply entrenched structural factors. The empirical analysis suggests that the factors conditioning the shock absorption across euro area Member States largely differ from those facilitating recovery in the face of a common shock. More specifically, labour market features play an important role in shock absorption with higher levels of labour market rigidity dampening the shock absorption capacity most. The recovery capacity is affected by a broader set of factors, especially those that hinder the reallocation of labour as well as of the production of goods and services. While high public debt seems to hinder shock absorption capacity, high private debt weakens the recovery capacity. Some factors such as high economic openness have a negative impact on the absorption capacity in case of a common shock as it also affects trading partners, while having a positive impact on the recovery capacity. The results also suggest that degrees of macroeconomic resilience differ across the euro area and well-calibrated reforms are needed to address the nexus of country-specific challenges.

本文评估了哪些结构特征对宏观经济弹性至关重要，特别是 1998 年至 2018 年期间欧元区成员国吸收共同冲击和从中恢复的能力。本文旨在通过贝叶斯模型平均来确定一组尽可能多样化和具体的因素，以指导未来的政策行动。这些特定国家的因素涉及宏观经济状况、产品、劳动力和金融市场的运作、制度质量以及根深蒂固的结构性因素。实证分析表明，影响欧元区成员国吸收冲击的因素与面对共同冲击时促进复苏的因素大不相同。更具体地说，劳动力市场特征在减震方面发挥着重要作用，较高水平的劳动力市场刚性对减震能力的抑制最大。恢复能力受到更广泛因素的影响，特别是那些阻碍劳动力以及商品和服务生产重新分配的因素。虽然高额公共债务似乎阻碍了冲击吸收能力，但高额私人债务却削弱了复苏能力。经济高度开放等一些因素对共同冲击时的吸收能力产生负面影响，因为它也会影响贸易伙伴，但对复苏能力产生积极影响。结果还表明，整个欧元区的宏观经济弹性程度各不相同，需要进行精心调整的改革来解决各国具体挑战的联系。经济高度开放等一些因素对共同冲击时的吸收能力产生负面影响，因为它也会影响贸易伙伴，但对复苏能力产生积极影响。结果还表明，整个欧元区的宏观经济弹性程度各不相同，需要进行精心调整的改革来解决各国具体挑战的联系。经济高度开放等一些因素对共同冲击时的吸收能力产生负面影响，因为它也会影响贸易伙伴，但对复苏能力产生积极影响。结果还表明，整个欧元区的宏观经济弹性程度各不相同，需要进行精心调整的改革来解决各国具体挑战的联系。