ABSTRACT

This paper quantifies the impact of uncertainty shocks on inflation by distinguishing their effect through aggregate supply and demand adjustments for 34 advanced and emerging economies. Methodologically, this quantification starts by identifying structural aggregate supply and demand shocks and evaluating their impacts on output growth and inflation. Results show that uncertainty shocks prompt responses on both sides of the market by shifting aggregate demand and supply curves leftward. The aggregate demand leftward shift causes similar deflationary pressures across all countries. However, the inflationary pressures from the aggregate supply contraction are significantly larger in emerging than in advanced economies.

摘要

本文通过对 34 个发达和新兴经济体的总供求调整来区分不确定性冲击对通货膨胀的影响，从而量化了这些冲击对通货膨胀的影响。在方法上，这种量化首先确定结构性总供需冲击并评估它们对产出增长和通货膨胀的影响。结果表明，不确定性冲击通过将总需求和供给曲线向左移动来促使市场双方做出反应。总需求左移导致所有国家出现类似的通货紧缩压力。然而，新兴经济体总供给收缩带来的通胀压力明显大于发达经济体。