In a vast majority of disputes, settlement is superior to litigation, which involves uncertainty, legal fees, and opportunity cost. Unnecessary litigation also causes judicial backlog, wastes resources, and increases societal conflict. Major contributors to the lack of settlement are intransigent litigants who harbor overoptimistic predictions of litigation outcomes, even though they are looking at identical facts and applicable law. A study (N = 166) found significant myside bias in the participants' predictions of a judicial award (claimants' advisers expected awards that were 69% higher than defendants' advisers) and in their evaluation of arguments (both sides thought the arguments supporting their side were 30% more convincing than the arguments supporting their counterparty). Debiasing interventions—alerting to the myside bias, considering the perspective of the counterparty and dialectical bootstrapping—reduced the bias but did not eliminate it. Exploratory investigation indicated that a large proportion of advisers exhibited naïve realism and bias blind spot, and that cognitive reflection provided a limited measure of resistance to myside bias.

中文翻译：

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你能相信你律师的电话吗？法律顾问表现出对去偏干预有抵抗力的我方偏见

在绝大多数纠纷中，和解优于诉讼，后者涉及不确定性、法律费用和机会成本。不必要的诉讼还造成司法积压，浪费资源，加剧社会矛盾。导致无法达成和解的主要原因是顽固的诉讼当事人，他们对诉讼结果抱有过于乐观的预测，即使他们正在研究相同的事实和适用法律。一项研究（N = 166) 在参与者对司法裁决的预测（原告顾问比被告顾问高出 69%）和他们对论据的评估（双方都认为支持他们一方的论据为 30%）中发现了明显的我方偏见比支持对方的论据更有说服力）。消除偏见的干预——提醒我方偏见，考虑交易对手的观点和辩证引导——减少了偏见，但没有消除它。探索性调查表明，很大一部分顾问表现出天真的现实主义和偏见盲点，并且认知反思提供了对我方偏见的抵抗的有限措施。