This paper analyses determinants of household savings in a model based on an extension of the disequilibrium savings theory. These extensions follow from the life-cycle, permanent-income and Ricardian-equivalence theories. Based on panel data of 20 countries from the period 2000–2020, fixed-effect least squares estimation procedures are used. The analysis provides evidence that negative interest rates lead to a statistically and economic significant increase in savings. This implies that stimulating household consumption with a monetary policy of negative interest rates is counter-productive. The positive effect of income uncertainty and lagged saving rates gets smaller for negative interest rates, weakening the support for the disequilibrium-savings theory. Larger government deficits increase savings even more when rates are negative, strengthening the Ricardian equivalence effect. The effect of negative interest on the predictions of the life-cycle and permanent-income theories is mixed.

本文分析了基于非均衡储蓄理论扩展的模型中家庭储蓄的决定因素。这些扩展遵循生命周期、永久收入和李嘉图等价理论。基于 2000-2020 年期间 20 个国家的面板数据，使用了固定效应最小二乘法估计程序。该分析提供的证据表明，负利率导致储蓄在统计上和经济上显着增加。这意味着用负利率的货币政策刺激家庭消费会适得其反。收入不确定性和滞后储蓄率对负利率的积极影响变小，削弱了对非均衡储蓄理论的支持。当利率为负时，更大的政府赤字会更多地增加储蓄，加强李嘉图等价效应。负利率对生命周期和永久收入理论的预测的影响是混合的。