There is an emerging literature to explain the variation in voting behavior by subjective well-being (or ‘happiness’) measures beyond standard economic and financial variables that economic voting models assert. This paper contributes to this new line of research by testing whether subjective well-being indicators are significant predictors of the June 2015 elections in Turkey. Using the 2013 wave of Life Satisfaction Surveys that is representative at the provincial level, our findings indicate that low levels of subjective well-being (‘discontent’) have a strong predictive power on the outcome of elections at the local level, accounting for provincial demographic and socioeconomic covariates, and possible reverse causality. We also use additional questions on satisfaction with public services and find that the Turkish electorate is more responsive to particular policies of the incumbent party rather than general economic conditions, or their general well-being.

有新兴文献可以解释投票行为的变化通过超越经济投票模型所断言的标准经济和金融变量的主观幸福感（或“幸福”）衡量标准。本文通过测试主观幸福感指标是否是土耳其 2015 年 6 月选举的重要预测因素，为这一新的研究方向做出了贡献。利用 2013 年在省级具有代表性的生活满意度调查，我们的研究结果表明，低水平的主观幸福感（“不满”）对地方一级的选举结果具有很强的预测力，占省级选举的人口和社会经济协变量，以及可能的反向因果关系。