Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide an understanding of how backward intelligence and forward-looking intelligence interact and impact decision making in the context of acquisitions. Past experiences provide essential information used for decision making, however, the ex ante nature of premiums, which require forward-looking intelligence, can change how experience is utilized.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors utilize a fixed effects model to examine acquisitions conducted by US public firms during the period of 1993–2015.

Findings

The authors find that as past acquisition returns increase, acquirers are likely to adopt a backward-looking perspective of past performance that leads to higher premiums, as opposed to a forward-looking perspective of consequences. The relationship between past performance and premium is moderated by differences in the target's industry and the target's slack levels relative to the acquirer. The study findings suggest that forward-looking intelligence can alter attention and ultimately behavior based on backward-looking intelligence. By focusing on how these two contrasting perspectives interact, our findings extend research on the tension between backward-looking and forward-looking logics of decision making.

Originality/value

Unlike extant literature of acquisition premiums that have mainly focused on the valence and magnitude of experience, the authors focus on how backward-looking decision behavior changes when the firm's expectations of the future are incorporated. The authors empirically demonstrate how a lower acquisition premium is achieved when the decision of how much to pay is an interaction of the past and the future.

中文翻译：

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寻找更有利的条件：过往业绩和目标差异对并购溢价的影响

目的

本文的目的是让人们了解后向情报和前瞻性情报如何在收购背景下相互作用并影响决策。过去的经验提供了用于决策的重要信息，然而，保费的事前性质需要前瞻性的情报，可以改变经验的利用方式。

设计/方法论/途径

作者利用固定效应模型来研究美国上市公司在 1993 年至 2015 年期间进行的收购。

发现

作者发现，随着过去收购回报的增加，收购方可能会对过去的业绩采取回顾性的观点，从而导致更高的溢价，而不是对后果采取前瞻性的观点。过去业绩与溢价之间的关系受到目标行业的差异以及目标相对于收购方的闲置水平的影响。研究结果表明，前瞻智力可以改变基于后顾智力的注意力并最终改变行为。通过关注这两种截然不同的观点如何相互作用，我们的研究结果扩展了对决策逻辑的向后看和前瞻性之间的紧张关系的研究。

原创性/价值

与现有的收购溢价文献主要关注经验的效价和大小不同，作者关注的是当公司对未来的预期纳入考虑时，向后看的决策行为会如何变化。作者凭经验证明了当支付多少的决定是过去和未来的相互作用时如何实现较低的收购溢价。