We study a multi-stage model for the development of colorectal cancer from initially healthy tissue. The model incorporates a complex sequence of driver gene alterations, some of which result in immediate growth advantage, while others have initially neutral effects. We derive analytic estimates for the sizes of premalignant subpopulations, and use these results to compute the waiting times to premalignant and malignant genotypes. This work contributes to the quantitative understanding of colorectal tumor evolution and the lifetime risk of colorectal cancer.

中文翻译：

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结直肠癌发生的分支过程模型中的等待时间

我们研究了从最初健康组织发展为结直肠癌的多阶段模型。该模型包含一系列复杂的驱动基因改变序列，其中一些会带来直接的生长优势，而另一些则最初具有中性影响。我们对癌前亚群的大小进行分析估计，并使用这些结果来计算癌前和恶性基因型的等待时间。这项工作有助于定量了解结直肠肿瘤的演变和结直肠癌的终生风险。