Disaster corruption is a vexing problem, damaging state legitimacy and exacerbating human suffering. Mexico has a history of both major disasters and persistently high levels of corruption. A magnitude 7.1 earthquake in 2017 provided an opportunity to study change over time in expectations and tolerance of corruption in disaster relief. Twenty years earlier, Mexico City residents expected, on average, essentially three out of 10 hypothetical trucks loaded with humanitarian assistance to be lost to corruption but expressed near zero tolerance of such conduct. By 2018–19, Mexico City residents expected more than one-half of all relief, six out of 10 trucks, to be stolen, and could tolerate three out of 10 trucks being pilfered. Similar results were found at the national level. Hence, Mexicans appear to be giving up on the state. Addressing corruption in disaster risk reduction and humanitarian relief specifically might provide a template for improving public trust across other state institutions.

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灾难与腐败：公众期望与容忍——来自墨西哥的证据

灾难腐败是一个令人烦恼的问题，损害国家合法性并加剧人类苦难。墨西哥有着发生过重大灾难和持续严重腐败的历史。2017 年发生的 7.1 级地震提供了一个机会来研究救灾过程中对腐败的期望和容忍度随时间的变化。二十年前，墨西哥城居民平均预计，假设每 10 辆装载人道主义援助的卡车中就有 3 辆会因腐败而损失，但对此类行为的容忍度几乎为零。到 2018-19 年，墨西哥城居民预计一半以上的救援物资（即每 10 辆卡车中有 6 辆）将被盗，并且可以容忍十分之三的卡车被盗。在国家层面也发现了类似的结果。因此，墨西哥人似乎正在放弃国家。特别是解决减少灾害风险和人道主义救援方面的腐败问题，可能会为提高公众对其他国家机构的信任提供一个模板。