The Turkish lira has depreciated by 200% between 2012 and 2022. We investigate how exchange rates affect Turkish imports and exports. Nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag results indicate that appreciations during appreciation episodes increase imports and exports but exchange rate changes during depreciation periods frequently do not affect trade. These responses are inconsistent with the predictions of the imperfect substitutes model and the dominant currency pricing model. Rather, they are consistent with models where firms need to import inputs in order to export and where appreciations ease credit constraints that firms face when they must borrow in foreign currencies to purchase inputs.

土耳其里拉在 2012 年至 2022 年间贬值了 200%。我们调查了汇率如何影响土耳其的进出口。非线性自回归分布滞后结果表明，升值期间的升值会增加进出口，但贬值期间的汇率变化通常不会影响贸易。这些反应与不完全替代模型和主导货币定价模型的预测不一致。相反，它们与企业需要进口投入才能出口以及升值缓解了企业在必须借入外币购买投入时所面临的信贷约束的模型是一致的。