Purpose

This study examined subjective numeracy and its relationship with accounting judgements on probability issues.

Design/methodology/approach

A subjective numeracy scale (SNS) questionnaire was distributed to 231 accounting students to measure self-evaluated numeracy. Modified Bayesian reasoning tasks were applied in an accounting-related probability estimation, manipulating presentation formats.

Findings

The study revealed a positive relationship between self-evaluated numeracy and performance in accounting probability estimation. The findings suggest that switching the format of probability expressions from percentages to frequencies can improve the performance of participants with low self-evaluated numeracy.

Research limitations/implications

Adding objective numeracy measurements could enhance results. Future numeracy research could add objective numeracy items and assess whether this influences participants' self-perceived numeracy. Based on this sample population of accounting students, the findings may not apply to large populations of accounting-information users.

Practical implications

Investors' ability to exercise sound judgement depends on the accuracy of their probability estimations. Manipulating the format of probability expressions can improve probability estimation performance in investors with low self-evaluated numeracy.

Originality/value

This study identified a significant performance gap among participants in performing accounting probability estimations: those with high self-evaluated numeracy performed better than those with low self-evaluated numeracy. The authors also explored a method other than additional training to improve participants' performance on probability estimation tasks and discovered that frequency formats enhanced the performance of participants with low self-evaluated numeracy.

中文翻译：

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会计中的概率估计：主观计算能力很重要

目的

本研究探讨了主观计算能力及其与概率问题会计判断的关系。

设计/方法论/途径

我们向 231 名会计专业学生发放了主观算术量表 (SNS) 问卷，以衡量自我评估的算术能力。修改后的贝叶斯推理任务被应用于与会计相关的概率估计，操纵表示格式。

发现

该研究揭示了自我评价计算能力与会计概率估计表现之间的正相关关系。研究结果表明，将概率表达式的格式从百分比转换为频率可以提高自评算术能力较低的参与者的表现。

研究局限性/影响

添加客观的计算能力测量可以提高结果。未来的计算能力研究可以增加客观的计算能力项目，并评估这是否会影响参与者的自我感知的计算能力。根据会计学生样本，研究结果可能不适用于大量会计信息用户。

实际影响

投资者做出正确判断的能力取决于他们概率估计的准确性。操纵概率表达式的格式可以提高自我评估计算能力较低的投资者的概率估计表现。

原创性/价值

这项研究发现参与者在进行会计概率估计时存在显着的绩效差距：自评算术能力高的人比自评算术能力低的人表现更好。作者还探索了一种除额外训练之外的方法来提高参与者在概率估计任务中的表现，并发现频率格式提高了自评计算能力较低的参与者的表现。