Applying simple linear regression models, an economist analyzed a published dataset from an influential annual ranking in 2016 and 2017 of consumer outlets for Dutch New Herring and concluded that the ranking was manipulated. His finding was promoted by his university in national and international media, and this led to public outrage and ensuing discontinuation of the survey. We reconstitute the dataset, correcting errors and exposing features already important in a descriptive analysis of the data. The economist has continued his investigations, and in a follow-up publication repeats the same accusations. We point out errors in his reasoning and show that alleged evidence for deliberate manipulation of the ranking could easily be an artifact of specification errors. Temporal and spatial factors are both important and complex, and their effects cannot be captured using simple models, given the small sample sizes and many factors determining perceived taste of a food product.

中文翻译：

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业余回归的陷阱：荷兰新鲱鱼争议

一位经济学家应用简单的线性回归模型，分析了 Dutch New Herring 2016 年和 2017 年有影响力的消费者网点年度排名的已发布数据集，并得出结论认为该排名受到了操纵。他的大学在国内和国际媒体上宣传了他的发现，这引起了公众的愤怒并随后终止了调查。我们重建数据集，纠正错误并揭示在数据描述性分析中已经很重要的特征。这位经济学家继续进行调查，并在后续出版物中重复了同样的指控。我们指出了他的推理中的错误，并表明所谓的故意操纵排名的证据很可能是规范错误的产物。时间和空间因素既重要又复杂，鉴于样本量较小且决定食品感知味道的因素很多，因此无法使用简单的模型来捕捉它们的影响。