An alternative futures-based procedure is developed to forecast the season-average farm price for U.S. corn, an under-researched price forecast. The new method performs similarly or better than two widely-watched season-average price forecasts, i.e., the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and the Hoffman futures-based forecasts, at the beginning of the post-harvest season and just as well as those forecasts in most of the other months during the marketing year. We attribute the robust performance of the proposed forecast to its ability to use heterogeneous coefficients for futures and cash prices depending on the underlying market conditions. Improved performance of the proposed forecasts is especially noticeable when the market is more volatile. Overall, the method derived in this study complements the existing forecasts and provides valuable information for decision-makers.

开发了一种基于期货的替代程序来预测美国玉米的季节平均农场价格，这是一种研究不足的价格预测。在收获季节开始时，新方法的表现与两种广受关注的季节平均价格预测（即世界农业供需估计和霍夫曼期货预测）相似或更好销售年度中其他大部分月份的预测。我们将拟议预测的稳健表现归因于其根据潜在市场条件对期货和现货价格使用异质系数的能力。当市场波动较大时，建议预测的改进表现尤为明显。全面的，