To ensure sustainable development, governments depend on informed decision-makers including the electorates. Previous studies show evidence of widespread and systematic misperceptions, voter ignorance, and reliance on inappropriate cognitive heuristics. The wait and see heuristic is one such trusted heuristic that is used repeatedly and with minimal effort. When applied to the management of dynamically complex renewable resources, it leads to overinvestment and resource depletion. On the optimistic side, a laboratory experiment finds that proactive expert advice counteracts the wait and see heuristic and contributes to sustainability. However, when expert advice is challenged by misleading advice that supports the wait and see heuristic, most of the positive effect of the expert advice disappears. The experiment generalizes to a large number of sustainability problems. Different from fake news that can be corrected by simple facts, misperceptions and misleading advice call for extraordinary information policies and deliberative democracy. © 2023 System Dynamics Society.

中文翻译：

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可持续发展的挑战：误解和误导性建议

为了确保可持续发展，政府依赖包括选民在内的知情决策者。先前的研究表明存在广泛且系统性的误解、选民的无知以及对不适当的认知启发法的依赖。等待和观望启发法就是一种值得信赖的启发法，可以反复使用且花费最少的精力。当应用于动态复杂的可再生资源的管理时，它会导致过度投资和资源枯竭。从乐观的一面来看，一项实验室实验发现，积极主动的专家建议可以抵消观望启发式的影响，并有助于可持续发展。然而，当专家建议受到支持观望启发式的误导性建议的挑战时，专家建议的大部分积极效果就会消失。该实验概括了许多可持续性问题。与可以通过简单事实纠正的假新闻不同，误解和误导性建议需要非凡的信息政策和协商民主。© 2023 系统动力学协会。