The recent string of adverse global shocks (financial crisis, trade war, COVID-19, Ukraine war) poses a potential challenge to the well-known welfare enhancing effects of globalization, necessitating a better understanding of the longer run globalization-crisis linkage as opposed to its shorter run effects. Focusing on the Great Recession, we discover an evolving role of trade and financial openness from one that propagates and deepens the negative effects of crises to one that confirms its well-established contributions. Key to this is generating counterfactual output for open countries as if they were closed and examining the comparative impact of the crisis.

中文翻译：

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理解全球化与危机的联系：“差异化”方法

最近一系列不利的全球冲击（金融危机、贸易战、COVID-19、乌克兰战争）对众所周知的全球化福利增强效应构成了潜在挑战，需要更好地理解全球化与危机的长期联系。其短期效果。着眼于大衰退，我们发现贸易和金融开放的作用正在不断演变，从传播和加深危机的负面影响到确认其公认的贡献。其关键是为开放国家提供反事实的产出，就像它们是封闭国家一样，并审查危机的相对影响。