Adaptive plasticity is expected to evolve when informative cues predict environmental variation. However, plastic responses can be maladaptive even when those cues are informative, if prediction mistakes are shared across members of a generation. These fitness costs can constrain the evolution of plasticity when initial plastic mutants use of cues of only moderate reliability. Here, we model the barriers to the evolution of plasticity produced by these constraints and show that dispersal across a metapopulation can overcome them. Constraints are also lessened, though not eliminated, when plastic responses are free to evolve gradually and in concert with increased reliability. Each of these factors be viewed as a form of bet-hedging: by lessening correlations in the fates of relatives, dispersal acts as diversifying bet-hedging, while producing submaximal responses to a cue can be understood as a conservative bet-hedging strategy. While poor information may constrain the evolution of plasticity, the opportunity for bet-hedging may predict when that constraint can be overcome.

中文翻译：

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通过分散进行的投注对冲有助于塑料对不可靠线索的反应的演变。

当信息线索预测环境变化时，自适应可塑性有望发展。然而，如果预测错误在一代人之间共享，即使这些线索提供了信息，可塑性反应也可能是适应不良的。当初始可塑性突变体仅使用中等可靠性的线索时，这些适应性成本会限制可塑性的进化。在这里，我们模拟了这些约束产生的可塑性进化障碍，并表明分散在一个集合种群中可以克服这些障碍。当可塑性反应随着可靠性的提高而逐渐自由演变时，约束也会减少，但不会消除。这些因素中的每一个都被视为一种赌注对冲形式：通过减少亲属命运的相关性，分散作为分散赌注对冲，同时对提示产生次最大反应可以理解为一种保守的对冲策略。虽然信息不畅可能会限制可塑性的发展，但对冲赌注的机会可能会预测何时可以克服这种限制。