We investigate the determinants of different traders’ trading positions in the gold futures market. With a threshold value determined endogenously by our model, we find that when the gold futures price falls below the threshold, money managers adopt positive feedback trading strategies while swap dealers adopt negative feedback trading strategies. When the futures price rises above the threshold, money managers turn to negative feedback trading and swap dealers reduce the intensity of their negative feedback. In addition, money managers and swap dealers play the transmitter role in trading spillovers to other traders, and their trading transmitter role weakens during periods with high gold prices.

我们调查了黄金期货市场中不同交易者交易头寸的决定因素。通过我们的模型内生确定的阈值，我们发现当黄金期货价格跌破阈值时，基金经理采用正反馈交易策略，而掉期交易商采用负反馈交易策略。当期货价格上涨到阈值以上时，基金经理转向负反馈交易，掉期交易商降低负反馈的强度。此外，基金经理和掉期交易商在对其他交易者的交易溢出效应中扮演着传递者的角色，而在金价高企期间，他们的交易传递者角色会减弱。