This study examines the short- and medium-term impacts of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war on the labor market for Ukrainian workers. Using a unique dataset of 5.4 million online job advertisements for Ukrainian job seekers in Poland and Ukraine over the 2021–2022 period, we show a short-term surge in demand for Ukrainians to work in Poland, while the number of jobs available in Ukraine is relatively stable. Since February 2022, the demand for soft and analytical skills in Ukraine has increased, while the demand for such skills in Poland has remained the same. Moreover, the increase in Polish jobs available to Ukrainian workers is largest for medium/high-skilled jobs and female-oriented jobs. Further analysis suggests a persistent shift (to the left) in wage distribution driven by both the decline of wages within job titles and the change in the composition of jobs across Poland.

本研究探讨了正在进行的俄罗斯-乌克兰战争对乌克兰工人劳动力市场的短期和中期影响。使用 2021 年至 2022 年期间波兰和乌克兰的 540 万个乌克兰求职者在线招聘广告的独特数据集，我们发现乌克兰人在波兰工作的需求短期激增，而乌克兰的可用工作数量为相对稳定。自 2022 年 2 月以来，乌克兰对软技能和分析技能的需求有所增加，而波兰对此类技能的需求保持不变。此外，乌克兰工人可获得的波兰工作岗位增幅最大的是中/高技能工作和面向女性的工作。进一步的分析表明，由于职称内工资的下降和波兰各地工作构成的变化，工资分配持续发生变化（向左）。