Are conservancies hotspots for communal violence and if so, do rainfall anomalies increase the likelihood of violence? The consensus from a rich number of case studies suggests that conservancies (e.g. national parks, game reserves) increase tensions between communities, which often lead to violent conflicts. Yet, these insights remain to be empirically tested using a large-N study. We examine this claim and explore if rainfall anomalies have an amplifying effect on violent conflicts. We contend that the spatial convergence between conservancies and rainfall variability can spark conflicts over access to resources in times of scarcity and create strategic opportunities to satisfy secondary goals in times of abundance. To test our expectations, we use sub-national data from East Africa between 1990 and 2018. Our results suggest that regions with conservancies are somewhat more prone to communal violence and find strong evidence that positive rainfall anomalies increase the likelihood of violent communal conflicts in regions with a conservancy.

中文翻译：

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保护区、降雨异常和社区暴力：来自东非的地方证据

保护区是否是社区暴力的热点地区？如果是，降雨异常是否会增加暴力发生的可能性？大量案例研究得出的共识表明，保护区（例如国家公园、野生动物保护区）会加剧社区之间的紧张关系，从而常常导致暴力冲突。然而，这些见解仍有待使用大规模的实证检验氮学习。我们研究了这一说法，并探讨降雨异常是否会对暴力冲突产生放大效应。我们认为，保护区和降雨量变化之间的空间融合可能会在稀缺时期引发资源获取冲突，并在丰沛时期创造满足次要目标的战略机会。为了检验我们的预期，我们使用了 1990 年至 2018 年间东非的地方数据。我们的结果表明，有保护区的地区更容易发生社区暴力，并发现强有力的证据表明，正降雨异常会增加该地区发生暴力社区冲突的可能性与保守。