In the last five decades, almost all European countries have experienced a decline in actual fertility, but not in desired fertility. The incompatibility of motherhood and paid work has been identified as one of the main drivers of women’s unrealized fertility desires. Regular grandparental childcare might reduce mothers’ work–family conflicts, increasing their chances of having a second birth. An extensive literature has estimated the role of grandparenting in adult children’s fertility. However, less attention has been devoted to the direct role of regular grandparental childcare, which is among the main resources in women’s reconciliation strategies. This article contributes to this debate by estimating the causal effect of regular grandparental childcare on women’s chances of having a second child. Using data from the first five waves of the Millennium Cohort Study, I implement an instrumental variable approach. I observe a strong and positive effect of regular grandparental childcare on women’s likelihood of having a second birth. This effect remains strong and positive net of women’s partnership status and income and educational levels. These results highlight the importance of the affordability and the availability of childcare for the decision to have a second child and the need for more supportive childcare policies.

中文翻译：

---

爷爷奶奶真的那么重要吗？定期祖父母育儿对二胎过渡的影响

在过去的五年里，几乎所有欧洲国家的实际生育率都出现了下降，但期望生育率却没有下降。母亲身份与有酬工作的不相容已被认为是妇女未实现生育愿望的主要驱动因素之一。定期照顾祖父母可能会减少母亲的工作与家庭冲突，增加她们生育第二胎的机会。大量文献评估了祖父母养育对成年子女生育能力的作用。然而，很少有人关注定期祖父母儿童保育的直接作用，而这是妇女和解战略的主要资源之一。本文通过估计定期祖父母育儿对女性生育第二个孩子的机会的因果影响，为这场辩论做出了贡献。使用千年队列研究前五波的数据，我实施了工具变量方法。我观察到定期祖父母育儿对女性生育第二胎的可能性产生强烈而积极的影响。考虑到妇女的伴侣关系状况、收入和教育水平，这种影响仍然强劲且积极。这些结果凸显了儿童保育的负担能力和可用性对于决定生第二个孩子的重要性，以及需要更多支持性儿童保育政策。