We examine the characteristics of housing markets under adaptive and heterogeneous expectations. Model agents have finite horizons, and their borrowings are constrained by the collateral value of housing stock. Our model shows that expectation-driven housing price dynamics constantly change the direction of movement. The steady-state process of housing prices follows an endogenous oscillation process, and the magnitude of the cycles can be amplified by external shocks. Our quantitative results imply that (i) short-term positive and long-term negative serial correlations in housing price changes are inherent, (ii) house prices and expected house price movements are positively correlated, and (iii) fluctuations in housing prices are not fully explained by fundamentals.

中文翻译：

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预期和住房市场：房价动态模型

我们研究了适应性和异质预期下住房市场的特征。模特经纪人的视野是有限的，他们的借款受到住房抵押品价值的限制。我们的模型表明，预期驱动的房价动态不断改变运动方向。房价的稳态过程遵循内生振荡过程，周期的幅度会因外部冲击而放大。我们的定量结果表明：（i）房价变化的短期正序列相关性和长期负序列相关性是固有的；（ii）房价与预期房价变动呈正相关；（iii）房价波动不存在正相关关系。完全由基本原理解释。