Decades of research have illuminated the underlying ingredients that determine the scope of evolutionary responses to climate change. The field of evolutionary biology therefore stands ready to take what it has learned about influences upon the rate of adaptive evolution—such as population demography, generation time, and standing genetic variation—and apply it to assess if and how populations can evolve fast enough to “keep pace” with climate change. Here, our review highlights what the field of evolutionary biology can contribute and what it still needs to learn to provide more mechanistic predictions of the winners and losers of climate change. We begin by developing broad predictions for contemporary evolution to climate change based on theory. We then discuss methods for assessing climate-driven contemporary evolution, including quantitative genetic studies, experimental evolution, and space-for-time substitutions. After providing this mechanism-focused overview of both the evidence for evolutionary responses to climate change and more specifically, evolving to keep pace with climate change, we next consider the factors that limit actual evolutionary responses. In this context, we consider the dual role of phenotypic plasticity in facilitating but also impeding evolutionary change. Finally, we detail how a deeper consideration of evolutionary constraints can improve forecasts of responses to climate change and therefore also inform conservation and management decisions.

中文翻译：

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气候变化何时会超过适应性进化？

数十年的研究阐明了决定气候变化进化反应范围的根本因素。因此，进化生物学领域随时准备利用其所了解的影响适应性进化速度的知识（例如种群人口统计、世代时间和常备遗传变异）并将其应用于评估种群是否以及如何能够足够快地进化到与气候变化“保持同步”。在这里，我们的综述强调了进化生物学领域可以做出的贡献以及它仍然需要学习的内容，以便为气候变化的赢家和输家提供更机械的预测。我们首先根据理论对当代气候变化的演变进行广泛的预测。然后我们讨论评估气候驱动的当代进化的方法，包括定量遗传学研究、实验进化和时空替代。在提供了对气候变化的进化反应的证据的以机制为中心的概述之后，更具体地说，为跟上气候变化的步伐而进化，我们接下来考虑限制实际进化反应的因素。在这种背景下，我们考虑表型可塑性在促进和阻碍进化变化方面的双重作用。最后，我们详细介绍了对进化限制的更深入考虑如何改善对气候变化反应的预测，从而为保护和管理决策提供信息。