In this paper, I analyze how frameworks shape historiographical explanations. I argue that, in order to identify a sequence of events as relevant to a historical outcome, assumptions about the workings of the relevant domain have to be made. By extending Lakatosian considerations, I argue that these assumptions are provided by a framework that contains a set of factors and intertwined principles that (supposedly) govern how a historical phenomenon works. I connect frameworks with a counterfactual account of historical explanation. Frameworks enable us to explain the past by providing a backbone of explanatory patterns of counterfactual dependency. I conclude by noting that both counterfactual scenarios and scenarios of the future require frameworks and, therefore, historiographical explanation generates a set of possible futures. Analyzing these possible futures enables us to reveal the theoretical commitments of historiography.

中文翻译：

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史学框架：解释、情景和未来

在本文中，我分析了框架如何塑造史学解释。我认为，为了确定与历史结果相关的一系列事件，必须对相关领域的运作做出假设。通过扩展拉卡托斯的考虑，我认为这些假设是由一个框架提供的，该框架包含一组因素和相互交织的原则，（据说）控制着历史现象的运作方式。我将框架与历史解释的反事实描述联系起来。框架使我们能够通过提供反事实依赖的解释模式的支柱来解释过去。最后我指出，反事实情景和未来情景都需要框架，因此，历史学解释会产生一组可能的未来。