Abstract

Forty-four state governments enacted eviction moratoria freezing or tempering the eviction process during the COVID-19 pandemic in an effort to forestall evictions. Combining data on state and federal eviction policies with data on eviction filings at the census tract level in 27 municipal areas from very late December 2019 through March 2022, we estimated correlated random effects Poisson models to examine effects of the moratoria. We found that state eviction moratoria were associated with a 32% lower rate of filings for a given tract, with moratoria targeting earlier stages of the eviction process having a particularly pronounced effect. We further found that state and federal moratoria were synergistic: eviction filings were lowest when both a strong state moratorium and a federal moratorium were in effect. Finally, state moratoria tempered the relationships between risk factors such as community poverty or racial and ethnic demographic composition and eviction filings. Results suggest that state eviction moratoria, particularly those targeting earlier stages of the eviction process, were successful in meeting their primary goal of decreasing eviction risks during the pandemic.

摘要

在 COVID-19 大流行期间，44 个州政府颁布了暂停驱逐令，冻结或缓和了驱逐程序，以防止驱逐。将州和联邦驱逐政策的数据与 2019 年 12 月下旬至 2022 年 3 月期间 27 个市辖区人口普查区层面的驱逐申请数据相结合，我们估计了相关随机效应泊松模型，以检验暂停令的影响。我们发现，州暂停驱逐令特定地区的申请率降低 32%，其中针对驱逐过程早期阶段的暂停令效果尤为明显。我们进一步发现，州和联邦暂停令具有协同作用：当强有力的州暂停令和联邦暂停令同时生效时，驱逐申请量最低。最后，各州的暂停令缓和了社区贫困或种族和族裔人口构成与驱逐申请等风险因素之间的关系。结果表明，各州暂停驱逐，特别是针对驱逐过程早期阶段的驱逐，成功地实现了在大流行期间降低驱逐风险的主要目标。