This article argues that an understanding of the successful process which led to the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement (GFA) provides a useful context for understanding the constraints and opportunities for peace making in Ukraine. In Northern Ireland political actors took a pragmatic Realist approach to negotiations using a range of political skills, including manipulation and deception, to bring various contrasting and often antagonistic audiences to support or acquiesce in the Good Friday Agreement. Accommodation was achieved against the determined efforts of British Conservative and Republican ‘Dissident’ Militarists, who preferred the ‘moral certainties’ of war to conciliation and the messy morality and politics of peace making. The successful Realist approach applied in Northern Ireland provides some hope for a negotiated end to the Ukraine war.

本文认为，对贝尔法斯特/耶稣受难日协议（GFA）成功进程的理解为理解乌克兰和平进程的限制和机遇提供了有用的背景。在北爱尔兰，政治参与者采取务实的现实主义方式进行谈判，使用一系列政治技巧，包括操纵和欺骗，以吸引各种截然不同且往往是敌对的受众支持或默许《耶稣受难日协议》。在英国保守党和共和党“异见”军国主义者的坚决努力下，妥协得以实现，他更喜欢战争的“道德确定性”，而不是和解以及缔造和平的混乱的道德和政治。北爱尔兰成功的现实主义方法为通过谈判结束乌克兰战争带来了一些希望。