Based on the perspective of industry productivity, this article measures the sensitivities of different industries to external public security risks using stochastic frontier analysis, focusing on the relationship between the changes in industries’ production line positions triggered by terrorist attacks and the industries’ security risk sensitivities. We provide evidence that terrorist attacks have a significant adverse impact on the production line positions of global industries, and the strength of those positions’ reactions to terrorist attacks is determined by the degree of the industries’ security risk sensitivities. The reactions to terrorist attacks are nonmonotonic across industries’ security risk sensitivities, with the largest effects in industries near the seventy-fifth percentile of the distribution. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced in high-income and upper-middle-income countries, and also in regions with economic and trade cooperation agreements. A further decomposition analysis of the different production stages shows that complex global value chain (GVC) activities, especially those that involve domestic value-added re-exports to third countries, are more vulnerable to negative shocks from terrorist attacks.

本文基于行业生产率视角，采用随机前沿分析测度不同行业对外部公共安全风险的敏感度，重点研究恐怖袭击引发的行业生产线阵地变化与行业安全风险敏感度之间的关系。 。我们提供的证据表明，恐怖袭击对全球各行业的生产线岗位产生了显着的不利影响，而这些岗位对恐怖袭击反应的强度取决于行业安全风险的敏感程度。对恐怖袭击的反应在各个行业的安全风险敏感性中是非单调的，在分布的 75% 附近的行业中影响最大。这种现象在高收入和中高收入国家以及有经贸合作协定的地区尤其明显。对不同生产阶段的进一步分解分析表明，复杂的全球价值链（GVC）活动，特别是那些涉及国内增值再出口到第三国的活动，更容易受到恐怖袭击的负面冲击。